How The Signal Calculates
The Signal does not just stack evidence.
It evaluates hypothesis fit, applies Bayes factors, adjusts for priors, controls overlap, and synthesizes results by stage.
The pipeline
Each evidence item asks whether a datum is more expected under one live explanation than under another. That fit is expressed as a Bayes factor, then read through prior assumptions and dependency controls so closely related rows are not stacked as if fully independent.
- Evidence Item
- Hypothesis Fit
- Bayes Factor
- Prior Adjustment
- Dependency Adjustment
- Stage Synthesis
- Final Synthesis
Results are beta synthesis, not final proof. Stage and family context matter.