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"evidence_function": "defeater", "directness": "supporting", "dependency_cluster": "islam_rival_case", "dependency_role": "defeater", "defeater_family": "world_religion_rival", "defeater_target": [ "H-ISLAM" ], "answer_status": "partial_answer", "counts_as_direct_resurrection": false, "counts_as_direct_christ_identity": false, "counts_as_direct_logos_synthesis": false } } ] } }, "reason_source_fields": [ "cap_eligible", "cap_family", "dependency_cluster_id", "dependency_cluster_role", "dependency_weight_class" ] } ], "synthesis_model": { "id": "SignalSynthesisV1", "description": "Beta stage-conditioned synthesis model for cumulative coherence results.", "base_prior_profile": "ConservativeFair", "clamps": { "min_prior_probability": 0.01, "max_conditioned_prior_probability": 0.75 }, "weights": { "root_to_christ_identity_weight": 0.35, "root_and_christ_to_resurrection_weight": 0.45, "synthesis_weight_root": 0.25, "synthesis_weight_christ_identity": 0.3, "synthesis_weight_resurrection": 0.3, "synthesis_weight_support_layers": 0.15, "synthesis_weight_theology_proper": 0.05, "direct_logos_evidence_weight": 0.5, "root_naturalism_discount_weight": 0.25, "root_mind_structure_context_weight": 0.1, "alternative_pressure_discount_weight": 0.5, "strict_monotheism_discount_weight": 0.12, "logos_defeater_discount_weight": 0.5, "logos_defeater_discount_cap": 0.3, "christ_identity_defeater_discount_weight": 1.0, "christ_identity_defeater_discount_cap": 0.3, "resurrection_alt_collapse_credit_weight": 0.2, "resurrection_alt_collapse_credit_cap": 0.35 }, "guided_staged_path": { "id": "GuidedStagedPathV1", "description": "Official governed staged-path synthesis with capped carry-forward between stages.", "min_stage_prior_probability": 0.01, "max_carried_prior_probability": 0.9, "max_final_probability": 0.9999, "transfer_weights": { "root_god_to_revelation_ready_theism": 0.45, "revelation_ready_theism_to_public_revelation": 0.35, "public_revelation_to_jesus_identity": 0.25, "jesus_identity_to_resurrection": 0.5, "resurrection_to_logos_synthesis": 0.6 }, "notes": [ "Carries only governed stage evidence increments forward, not whole posteriors as fresh evidence.", "Support-layer stages receive lower transfer so they cannot become direct proof.", "Stage 6 uses residual Logos closure, not the whole conservative audit synthesis delta.", "The conservative audit synthesis is retained as a mathematical guardrail, not as the coherent walked-path reading." ] }, "notes": [ "Runtime-only synthesis configuration; does not create or alter hypothesis nodes.", "Uses dependency-adjusted evidence as the preferred direct evidence input.", "Stage-conditioned priors are clamped before direct downstream evidence is applied.", "A small root_mind_structure_context_weight routes already-computed mind/structure pressure into root conditioning; it does not change evidence Bayes factors or the ConservativeFair prior.", "Signal Synthesis v1 is a beta cumulative coherence model, not a final posterior.", "Signal Synthesis v1 is mathematically allowed as a conservative audit guardrail, but the coherent walked-path reading is represented by GuidedStagedPathV1 and reader-controlled path scenarios." ], "stages": { "root_metaphysics": [ "H-GOD", "H-DEISM", "H-NATURALISM", "H-IDEALISM", "H-PLATONIC-MATHEMATICAL-STRUCTURALISM" ], "christ_identity_strict_monotheism": [ "H-CHRIST-IDENTITY", "H-CHRIST-AS-LOGOS", "H-JUDAISM", "H-ISLAM" ], "resurrection_alternatives": [ "H-RESURRECTION", "H-ALT-HALLUCINATION", "H-ALT-LEGEND", "H-ALT-CONSPIRACY", "H-ALT-SWOON" ], "support_layers": [ "H-SCRIPTURE-HIST-EMBEDDEDNESS", "H-CANON-TEXTUAL-RELIABILITY" ], "final_virtual_nodes": [ "SIGNAL-SYNTHESIS-LOGOS" ] } }, "stage_conditioned_priors": { "christ_identity": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "upstream_signal": 2.9557, "upstream_weight": 0.35, "raw_conditioned_prior_log10_odds": -0.244259, "conditioned_prior_log10_odds": -0.244259, "conditioned_prior_probability": 0.362986, "conditioned_prior_percent": 36.298627, "clamp_applied": false }, "resurrection": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "upstream_signal": 4.43695, "upstream_weight": 0.45, "raw_conditioned_prior_log10_odds": 0.717874, "conditioned_prior_log10_odds": 0.477121, "conditioned_prior_probability": 0.75, "conditioned_prior_percent": 75.0, "clamp_applied": true } }, "synthesis_results": { "model_id": "SignalSynthesisV1", "status": "signal_synthesis_v1_beta_not_final_posterior", "root_context": { "stage": "Stage A - Root / Metaphysics", "root_theism_pressure": 2.931375, "root_naturalism_pressure": 0.01, "root_mind_or_structure_pressure": 1.17375, "root_mind_structure_context_weight": 0.1, "root_mind_structure_context_term": 0.117375, "root_context_signal_for_conditioning": 2.9557, "root_confidence_note": "Root context is a pressure estimate from dependency-adjusted evidence, not a flat mutually exclusive contest. The small mind/structure term routes already-computed governed pressure into root conditioning; it is not a BF or prior change.", "inputs": { "H-GOD": 2.705, "H-DEISM": 0.9055, "H-NATURALISM": 0.01, "H-IDEALISM": 0.945, "H-PLATONIC-MATHEMATICAL-STRUCTURALISM": 0.4575 } }, "christ_identity": { "stage": "Stage B - Christ Identity / Strict Monotheism", "base_prior_probability": 0.05, "conditioned_prior": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "upstream_signal": 2.9557, "upstream_weight": 0.35, "raw_conditioned_prior_log10_odds": -0.244259, "conditioned_prior_log10_odds": -0.244259, "conditioned_prior_probability": 0.362986, "conditioned_prior_percent": 36.298627, "clamp_applied": false }, "direct_dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 1.13125, "routing": { "raw_dependency_adjusted_christ_identity": 1.19275, "positive_direct_christ_identity_signal": 1.28625, "non_strict_christ_identity_defeater_pressure": 0.155, "non_strict_christ_identity_defeater_discount_used": 0.155, "strict_monotheism_pressure_removed_from_direct_christ_identity": 0.33, "routing_note": "Strict-monotheism rival pressure is removed from direct Christ-identity evidence and counted once in the final strict-monotheism discount." }, "posterior_style_score": { "posterior_log10_odds": 0.886991, "posterior_odds": 7.708875, "posterior_probability": 0.885175, "posterior_percent": 88.517461, "posterior_status": "posterior_style_claim_score_not_final" }, "strict_monotheism_pressure": 0.8325, "note": "H-CHRIST-AS-LOGOS remains downstream and is not treated as a flat peer with Judaism or Islam." }, "resurrection": { "stage": "Stage C - Resurrection / Alternatives", "isolated_prior": { "prior_probability": 0.05, "prior_log10_odds": -1.278754, "direct_dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.8125, "posterior_style_score": { "posterior_log10_odds": -0.466254, "posterior_odds": 0.34178, "posterior_probability": 0.254721, "posterior_percent": 25.472123, "posterior_status": "posterior_style_claim_score_not_final" } }, "stage_conditioned_prior": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "upstream_signal": 4.43695, "upstream_weight": 0.45, "raw_conditioned_prior_log10_odds": 0.717874, "conditioned_prior_log10_odds": 0.477121, "conditioned_prior_probability": 0.75, "conditioned_prior_percent": 75.0, "clamp_applied": true }, "stage_conditioned_score": { "posterior_log10_odds": 1.289621, "posterior_odds": 19.481438, "posterior_probability": 0.951175, "posterior_percent": 95.11753, "posterior_status": "posterior_style_claim_score_not_final" }, "direct_dependency_adjusted_resurrection_evidence": 0.8125, "routing": { "raw_dependency_adjusted_resurrection_evidence": 0.5925, "positive_direct_resurrection_signal": 0.8125, "non_direct_resurrection_defeater_pressure_removed_from_direct_evidence": 0.245, "routing_note": "Rows marked as resurrection alternatives or defeaters are not counted as raw direct Resurrection proof; alternative pressure remains visible in the governed prior-conditioning path." }, "alternatives_pressure": 0.0, "alternative_collapse_credit": { "log10BF_credit_used_in_prior_conditioning": 0.35, "cap": 0.35, "note": "Negative pressure against resurrection alternatives is used only as bounded prior-conditioning support, not as raw direct resurrection proof." }, "note": "Conditioned resurrection prior is raised or lowered by root context, Christ identity pressure, and scoped alternative pressure." }, "final_logos_synthesis": { "stage": "Stage D - Final Logos Synthesis", "virtual_result_id": "SIGNAL-SYNTHESIS-LOGOS", "synthesized_log10_odds": 0.292004, "synthesized_probability_style_score": 0.662032, "synthesized_percent": 66.203231, "confidence_band": { "log10_odds_min": -0.057996, "log10_odds_max": 0.642004, "probability_style_min": 0.466664, "probability_style_max": 0.814311 }, "components": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "root_component": 0.738925, "christ_identity_component": 0.266097, "resurrection_component": 0.386886, "support_layer_component": 0.101625, "theology_proper_component": 0.008375, "direct_logos_evidence_component": 0.33125, "logos_defeater_discount": -0.1625, "strict_monotheism_discount": -0.0999 }, "inputs_used": { "root_context_signal": 2.9557, "christ_identity_posterior_log10_odds": 0.886991, "resurrection_conditioned_log10_odds": 1.289621, "support_layer_signal": 0.6775, "theology_proper_signal": 0.1675, "direct_logos_evidence": 0.6625, "raw_dependency_adjusted_logos_evidence": 0.20325, "positive_direct_logos_evidence": 0.6625, "non_strict_logos_defeater_pressure": 0.325, "non_strict_logos_defeater_discount_used": 0.1625, "strict_monotheism_pressure_removed_from_direct_logos": 0.32, "strict_monotheism_pressure": 0.8325 }, "caveat": "Beta synthesis, not final posterior." }, "guided_staged_path_synthesis": { "id": "GuidedStagedPathV1", "kind": "official_guided_staged_path_synthesis", "description": "Official governed staged-path synthesis with capped carry-forward between stages.", "base_prior_profile": "ConservativeFair", "base_prior_percent": 5.0, "min_stage_prior_percent": 1.0, "max_carried_prior_percent": 90.0, "max_final_percent": 99.99, "stage6_residual_logos_closure_signal": 0.06885, "final_log10_odds": 1.023093, "final_probability_style_score": 0.913391, "final_percent": 91.339078, "stages": [ { "stage_id": "root_god", "stage_number": 1, "label": "God / Root Reality", "prior_log10_odds": -1.278754, "prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 2.705, "result_log10_odds": 1.426246, "result_percent": 96.387769, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.45, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": -0.061504, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 46.465473, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "This is the root God question, not yet Christianity or final Logos synthesis." }, { "stage_id": "revelation_ready_theism", "stage_number": 2, "label": "Revelation-Ready Theism", "prior_log10_odds": -0.061504, "prior_percent": 46.465473, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.5925, "result_log10_odds": 0.530996, "result_percent": 77.253209, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.35, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.145871, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 58.31897, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "This stage is directional and thinner than the root God stage. It should not be read as a clean mutually exclusive taxonomy of every theistic option." }, { "stage_id": "public_revelation", "stage_number": 3, "label": "Public Revelation", "prior_log10_odds": 0.145871, "prior_percent": 58.31897, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.6775, "result_log10_odds": 0.823371, "result_percent": 86.942482, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.25, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.315246, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 67.390088, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "Source reliability and public testimony support downstream claims. They are not themselves the final worldview conclusion." }, { "stage_id": "jesus_identity", "stage_number": 4, "label": "Jesus Identity", "prior_log10_odds": 0.315246, "prior_percent": 67.390088, "evidence_log10_signal": 1.13125, "result_log10_odds": 1.446496, "result_percent": 96.546648, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.5, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.880871, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 88.373461, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "The official model lets root context condition this stage, but direct Christ-identity evidence still has to carry its own burden." }, { "stage_id": "resurrection", "stage_number": 5, "label": "Resurrection", "prior_log10_odds": 0.880871, "prior_percent": 88.373461, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.8125, "result_log10_odds": 1.693371, "result_percent": 98.01428, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.6, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.954243, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 90.0, "cap_applied": true, "caveat": "Negative pressure against alternatives is bounded and visible. It is not treated as raw direct Resurrection proof." }, { "stage_id": "logos_synthesis", "stage_number": 6, "label": "Logos Synthesis", "prior_log10_odds": 0.954243, "prior_percent": 90.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.06885, "result_log10_odds": 1.023093, "result_percent": 91.339078, "carry_weight_to_next": null, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": null, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": null, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "Now that the path has been walked, this stage adds only the remaining Logos convergence and final rival-pressure adjustment." } ], "conservative_audit_reference": { "synthesized_log10_odds": 0.292004, "synthesized_percent": 66.203231 }, "notes": [ "Carries only governed stage evidence increments forward, not whole posteriors as fresh evidence.", "Support-layer stages receive lower transfer so they cannot become direct proof.", "Stage 6 uses residual Logos closure, not the whole conservative audit synthesis delta.", "The conservative audit synthesis is retained as a mathematical guardrail, not as the coherent walked-path reading." ] }, "public_stage_targets": [ { "stage_id": "root_god", "stage_number": 1, "label": "God / Root Reality", "question": "Is God real?", "result_kind": "dependency_adjusted_claim_score", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 2.705, "official_result_percent": 96.387769, "key_signal_label": "Dependency-adjusted God/root signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-GOD" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-NATURALISM", "title": "Naturalism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.01, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 5.110513, "item_count": 48, "positive_item_count": 14, "negative_item_count": 28 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-DEISM", "title": "Deism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.9055, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 29.745465, "item_count": 71, "positive_item_count": 35, "negative_item_count": 13 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-IDEALISM", "title": "Idealism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.945, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 31.680453, "item_count": 88, "positive_item_count": 29, "negative_item_count": 3 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "This is the root God question, not yet Christianity or final Logos synthesis." }, { "stage_id": "revelation_ready_theism", "stage_number": 2, "label": "Revelation-Ready Theism", "question": "If God is live, does the evidence point toward a personal/revealing God rather than a distant or abstract ground?", "result_kind": "directional_stage_signal", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.5925, "official_result_percent": 17.07732, "key_signal_label": "Classical/revealing-God signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-GOD-OT" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-DEISM", "title": "Deism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.9055, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 29.745465, "item_count": 71, "positive_item_count": 35, "negative_item_count": 13 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-GOD-IMMUTABLE", "title": "Immutable God", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.07, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 5.823561, "item_count": 4, "positive_item_count": 2, "negative_item_count": 2 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-GOD-RELATIONAL", "title": "Relational God", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.0975, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 6.180712, "item_count": 8, "positive_item_count": 4, "negative_item_count": 4 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "This stage is directional and thinner than the root God stage. It should not be read as a clean mutually exclusive taxonomy of every theistic option." }, { "stage_id": "public_revelation", "stage_number": 3, "label": "Public Revelation", "question": "Is public revelation a plausible route?", "result_kind": "support_layer_signal", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.6775, "official_result_percent": 20.029725, "key_signal_label": "Scripture/source support signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-SCRIPTURE-HIST-EMBEDDEDNESS", "H-CANON-TEXTUAL-RELIABILITY" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-SCRIPTURE-HIST-EMBEDDEDNESS", "title": "Scripture Historical Embeddedness", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.546, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 15.61408, "item_count": 32, "positive_item_count": 31, "negative_item_count": 1 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-CANON-TEXTUAL-RELIABILITY", "title": "Canon and Textual Reliability", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.1315, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 6.650559, "item_count": 15, "positive_item_count": 11, "negative_item_count": 4 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "Source reliability and public testimony support downstream claims. They are not themselves the final worldview conclusion." }, { "stage_id": "jesus_identity", "stage_number": 4, "label": "Jesus Identity", "question": "Who is Jesus?", "result_kind": "stage_conditioned_direct_claim_score", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 36.298627, "evidence_log10_signal": 1.13125, "official_result_percent": 88.517461, "key_signal_label": "Direct Christ-identity signal after routed defeaters", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-CHRIST-IDENTITY" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-CHRIST-IDENTITY", "title": "Jesus’ Identity (Pre-Res)", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 1.19275, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 45.065351, "item_count": 65, "positive_item_count": 52, "negative_item_count": 12 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-JUDAISM", "title": "Judaism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.3825, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 11.267536, "item_count": 17, "positive_item_count": 10, "negative_item_count": 1 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ISLAM", "title": "Islam", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.45, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 12.917469, "item_count": 10, "positive_item_count": 7, "negative_item_count": 2 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "The official model lets root context condition this stage, but direct Christ-identity evidence still has to carry its own burden." }, { "stage_id": "resurrection", "stage_number": 5, "label": "Resurrection", "question": "Did the Resurrection survive alternatives?", "result_kind": "stage_conditioned_direct_claim_score", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 75.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.8125, "official_result_percent": 95.11753, "key_signal_label": "Direct Resurrection signal with alternatives kept visible", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-RESURRECTION" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-RESURRECTION", "title": "Resurrection", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.5925, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 17.07732, "item_count": 13, "positive_item_count": 8, "negative_item_count": 5 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-HALLUCINATION", "title": "Alt: Hallucination", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.1725, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 3.417016, "item_count": 8, "positive_item_count": 2, "negative_item_count": 4 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-LEGEND", "title": "Alt: Legend", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.94375, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 0.595528, "item_count": 52, "positive_item_count": 9, "negative_item_count": 41 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-CONSPIRACY", "title": "Alt: Conspiracy", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.54, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 1.495215, "item_count": 14, "positive_item_count": 1, "negative_item_count": 10 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-SWOON", "title": "Alt: Swoon", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.325, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 2.429762, "item_count": 6, "positive_item_count": 0, "negative_item_count": 4 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "Negative pressure against alternatives is bounded and visible. It is not treated as raw direct Resurrection proof." }, { "stage_id": "logos_synthesis", "stage_number": 6, "label": "Logos Synthesis", "question": "Does the whole path converge on Christ as Logos?", "result_kind": "guided_residual_logos_closure", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 90.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.06885, "official_result_percent": 91.339078, "conservative_audit_result_percent": 66.203231, "key_signal_label": "Residual Logos convergence signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "SIGNAL-SYNTHESIS-LOGOS" ], "components": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "root_component": 0.738925, "christ_identity_component": 0.266097, "resurrection_component": 0.386886, "support_layer_component": 0.101625, "theology_proper_component": 0.008375, "direct_logos_evidence_component": 0.33125, "logos_defeater_discount": -0.1625, "strict_monotheism_discount": -0.0999 }, "carry_forward_allowed": false, "caveat": "Now that the path has been walked, this stage adds only the remaining Logos convergence and final rival-pressure adjustment.", "guided_staged_path_result_percent": 91.339078 } ], "caveats": [ "Signal Synthesis v1 is retained as the official conservative audit synthesis. It is mathematically allowed as a guardrail, but structurally incomplete as the walked-path reading; it is not a final posterior or proof.", "GuidedStagedPathV1 carries governed stage evidence increments forward under caps; it is distinct from the conservative audit synthesis and from user-custom slider paths.", "Raw, prior-adjusted, dependency-adjusted, and synthesized results are shown separately so assumptions remain inspectable.", "Direct Resurrection, Christ-identity, and Logos routing prefers explicit evidence metadata; legacy ID/string inference is retained only as fallback for older rows." ] }, "signal_synthesis_v1": { "stage": "Stage D - Final Logos Synthesis", "virtual_result_id": "SIGNAL-SYNTHESIS-LOGOS", "synthesized_log10_odds": 0.292004, "synthesized_probability_style_score": 0.662032, "synthesized_percent": 66.203231, "confidence_band": { "log10_odds_min": -0.057996, "log10_odds_max": 0.642004, "probability_style_min": 0.466664, "probability_style_max": 0.814311 }, "components": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "root_component": 0.738925, "christ_identity_component": 0.266097, "resurrection_component": 0.386886, "support_layer_component": 0.101625, "theology_proper_component": 0.008375, "direct_logos_evidence_component": 0.33125, "logos_defeater_discount": -0.1625, "strict_monotheism_discount": -0.0999 }, "inputs_used": { "root_context_signal": 2.9557, "christ_identity_posterior_log10_odds": 0.886991, "resurrection_conditioned_log10_odds": 1.289621, "support_layer_signal": 0.6775, "theology_proper_signal": 0.1675, "direct_logos_evidence": 0.6625, "raw_dependency_adjusted_logos_evidence": 0.20325, "positive_direct_logos_evidence": 0.6625, "non_strict_logos_defeater_pressure": 0.325, "non_strict_logos_defeater_discount_used": 0.1625, "strict_monotheism_pressure_removed_from_direct_logos": 0.32, "strict_monotheism_pressure": 0.8325 }, "caveat": "Beta synthesis, not final posterior." }, "guided_staged_path_synthesis": { "id": "GuidedStagedPathV1", "kind": "official_guided_staged_path_synthesis", "description": "Official governed staged-path synthesis with capped carry-forward between stages.", "base_prior_profile": "ConservativeFair", "base_prior_percent": 5.0, "min_stage_prior_percent": 1.0, "max_carried_prior_percent": 90.0, "max_final_percent": 99.99, "stage6_residual_logos_closure_signal": 0.06885, "final_log10_odds": 1.023093, "final_probability_style_score": 0.913391, "final_percent": 91.339078, "stages": [ { "stage_id": "root_god", "stage_number": 1, "label": "God / Root Reality", "prior_log10_odds": -1.278754, "prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 2.705, "result_log10_odds": 1.426246, "result_percent": 96.387769, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.45, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": -0.061504, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 46.465473, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "This is the root God question, not yet Christianity or final Logos synthesis." }, { "stage_id": "revelation_ready_theism", "stage_number": 2, "label": "Revelation-Ready Theism", "prior_log10_odds": -0.061504, "prior_percent": 46.465473, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.5925, "result_log10_odds": 0.530996, "result_percent": 77.253209, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.35, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.145871, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 58.31897, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "This stage is directional and thinner than the root God stage. It should not be read as a clean mutually exclusive taxonomy of every theistic option." }, { "stage_id": "public_revelation", "stage_number": 3, "label": "Public Revelation", "prior_log10_odds": 0.145871, "prior_percent": 58.31897, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.6775, "result_log10_odds": 0.823371, "result_percent": 86.942482, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.25, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.315246, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 67.390088, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "Source reliability and public testimony support downstream claims. They are not themselves the final worldview conclusion." }, { "stage_id": "jesus_identity", "stage_number": 4, "label": "Jesus Identity", "prior_log10_odds": 0.315246, "prior_percent": 67.390088, "evidence_log10_signal": 1.13125, "result_log10_odds": 1.446496, "result_percent": 96.546648, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.5, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.880871, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 88.373461, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "The official model lets root context condition this stage, but direct Christ-identity evidence still has to carry its own burden." }, { "stage_id": "resurrection", "stage_number": 5, "label": "Resurrection", "prior_log10_odds": 0.880871, "prior_percent": 88.373461, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.8125, "result_log10_odds": 1.693371, "result_percent": 98.01428, "carry_weight_to_next": 0.6, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": 0.954243, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": 90.0, "cap_applied": true, "caveat": "Negative pressure against alternatives is bounded and visible. It is not treated as raw direct Resurrection proof." }, { "stage_id": "logos_synthesis", "stage_number": 6, "label": "Logos Synthesis", "prior_log10_odds": 0.954243, "prior_percent": 90.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.06885, "result_log10_odds": 1.023093, "result_percent": 91.339078, "carry_weight_to_next": null, "carried_prior_log10_odds_for_next": null, "carried_prior_percent_for_next": null, "cap_applied": false, "caveat": "Now that the path has been walked, this stage adds only the remaining Logos convergence and final rival-pressure adjustment." } ], "conservative_audit_reference": { "synthesized_log10_odds": 0.292004, "synthesized_percent": 66.203231 }, "notes": [ "Carries only governed stage evidence increments forward, not whole posteriors as fresh evidence.", "Support-layer stages receive lower transfer so they cannot become direct proof.", "Stage 6 uses residual Logos closure, not the whole conservative audit synthesis delta.", "The conservative audit synthesis is retained as a mathematical guardrail, not as the coherent walked-path reading." ] }, "public_stage_targets": [ { "stage_id": "root_god", "stage_number": 1, "label": "God / Root Reality", "question": "Is God real?", "result_kind": "dependency_adjusted_claim_score", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 2.705, "official_result_percent": 96.387769, "key_signal_label": "Dependency-adjusted God/root signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-GOD" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-NATURALISM", "title": "Naturalism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.01, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 5.110513, "item_count": 48, "positive_item_count": 14, "negative_item_count": 28 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-DEISM", "title": "Deism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.9055, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 29.745465, "item_count": 71, "positive_item_count": 35, "negative_item_count": 13 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-IDEALISM", "title": "Idealism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.945, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 31.680453, "item_count": 88, "positive_item_count": 29, "negative_item_count": 3 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "This is the root God question, not yet Christianity or final Logos synthesis." }, { "stage_id": "revelation_ready_theism", "stage_number": 2, "label": "Revelation-Ready Theism", "question": "If God is live, does the evidence point toward a personal/revealing God rather than a distant or abstract ground?", "result_kind": "directional_stage_signal", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.5925, "official_result_percent": 17.07732, "key_signal_label": "Classical/revealing-God signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-GOD-OT" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-DEISM", "title": "Deism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.9055, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 29.745465, "item_count": 71, "positive_item_count": 35, "negative_item_count": 13 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-GOD-IMMUTABLE", "title": "Immutable God", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.07, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 5.823561, "item_count": 4, "positive_item_count": 2, "negative_item_count": 2 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-GOD-RELATIONAL", "title": "Relational God", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.0975, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 6.180712, "item_count": 8, "positive_item_count": 4, "negative_item_count": 4 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "This stage is directional and thinner than the root God stage. It should not be read as a clean mutually exclusive taxonomy of every theistic option." }, { "stage_id": "public_revelation", "stage_number": 3, "label": "Public Revelation", "question": "Is public revelation a plausible route?", "result_kind": "support_layer_signal", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 5.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.6775, "official_result_percent": 20.029725, "key_signal_label": "Scripture/source support signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-SCRIPTURE-HIST-EMBEDDEDNESS", "H-CANON-TEXTUAL-RELIABILITY" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-SCRIPTURE-HIST-EMBEDDEDNESS", "title": "Scripture Historical Embeddedness", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.546, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 15.61408, "item_count": 32, "positive_item_count": 31, "negative_item_count": 1 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-CANON-TEXTUAL-RELIABILITY", "title": "Canon and Textual Reliability", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.1315, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 6.650559, "item_count": 15, "positive_item_count": 11, "negative_item_count": 4 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "Source reliability and public testimony support downstream claims. They are not themselves the final worldview conclusion." }, { "stage_id": "jesus_identity", "stage_number": 4, "label": "Jesus Identity", "question": "Who is Jesus?", "result_kind": "stage_conditioned_direct_claim_score", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 36.298627, "evidence_log10_signal": 1.13125, "official_result_percent": 88.517461, "key_signal_label": "Direct Christ-identity signal after routed defeaters", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-CHRIST-IDENTITY" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-CHRIST-IDENTITY", "title": "Jesus’ Identity (Pre-Res)", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 1.19275, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 45.065351, "item_count": 65, "positive_item_count": 52, "negative_item_count": 12 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-JUDAISM", "title": "Judaism", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.3825, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 11.267536, "item_count": 17, "positive_item_count": 10, "negative_item_count": 1 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ISLAM", "title": "Islam", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.45, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 12.917469, "item_count": 10, "positive_item_count": 7, "negative_item_count": 2 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "The official model lets root context condition this stage, but direct Christ-identity evidence still has to carry its own burden." }, { "stage_id": "resurrection", "stage_number": 5, "label": "Resurrection", "question": "Did the Resurrection survive alternatives?", "result_kind": "stage_conditioned_direct_claim_score", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 75.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.8125, "official_result_percent": 95.11753, "key_signal_label": "Direct Resurrection signal with alternatives kept visible", "source_hypotheses": [ "H-RESURRECTION" ], "comparison_hypotheses": [ { "hypothesis_id": "H-RESURRECTION", "title": "Resurrection", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": 0.5925, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 17.07732, "item_count": 13, "positive_item_count": 8, "negative_item_count": 5 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-HALLUCINATION", "title": "Alt: Hallucination", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.1725, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 3.417016, "item_count": 8, "positive_item_count": 2, "negative_item_count": 4 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-LEGEND", "title": "Alt: Legend", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.94375, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 0.595528, "item_count": 52, "positive_item_count": 9, "negative_item_count": 41 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-CONSPIRACY", "title": "Alt: Conspiracy", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.54, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 1.495215, "item_count": 14, "positive_item_count": 1, "negative_item_count": 10 }, { "hypothesis_id": "H-ALT-SWOON", "title": "Alt: Swoon", "dependency_adjusted_log10BF": -0.325, "dependency_adjusted_posterior_percent": 2.429762, "item_count": 6, "positive_item_count": 0, "negative_item_count": 4 } ], "carry_forward_allowed": true, "caveat": "Negative pressure against alternatives is bounded and visible. It is not treated as raw direct Resurrection proof." }, { "stage_id": "logos_synthesis", "stage_number": 6, "label": "Logos Synthesis", "question": "Does the whole path converge on Christ as Logos?", "result_kind": "guided_residual_logos_closure", "default_prior_percent": 5.0, "suggested_prior_percent": 90.0, "evidence_log10_signal": 0.06885, "official_result_percent": 91.339078, "conservative_audit_result_percent": 66.203231, "key_signal_label": "Residual Logos convergence signal", "source_hypotheses": [ "SIGNAL-SYNTHESIS-LOGOS" ], "components": { "base_log10_odds": -1.278754, "root_component": 0.738925, "christ_identity_component": 0.266097, "resurrection_component": 0.386886, "support_layer_component": 0.101625, "theology_proper_component": 0.008375, "direct_logos_evidence_component": 0.33125, "logos_defeater_discount": -0.1625, "strict_monotheism_discount": -0.0999 }, "carry_forward_allowed": false, "caveat": "Now that the path has been walked, this stage adds only the remaining Logos convergence and final rival-pressure adjustment.", "guided_staged_path_result_percent": 91.339078 } ] }