# Methodology: Strict Logic Defense

Status: current v0.74 methodology document. This is explanatory methodology only. It does not change evidence rows, Bayes factors, priors, formulas, dependency caps, hypothesis IDs, evidence IDs, source trails, or stage flow.

## 1. What A Hypothesis Is

A hypothesis is a candidate explanation under inspection. In The Signal, hypotheses include broad worldview claims, stage-specific claims, and narrower alternatives. A hypothesis is not treated as true merely because it exists in the map. It receives pressure from evidence rows, defeaters, rival comparisons, dependency controls, and sensitivity checks.

## 2. What An Evidence Row Is

An evidence row is a discrete claim, datum, objection, bridge principle, answer pointer, or contextual support item. Some rows are scored. Some are unweighted context, parent summaries, caveats, or methodology notes. A row should be read in its evidence function and dependency role, not as an isolated proof.

## 3. What A Bayes Factor Means Here

A Bayes factor is a local likelihood-pressure estimate. It asks how much a particular row favors or pressures named hypotheses under the row's stated scope. It is not a final posterior, not a proof, and not a substitute for judgment about citations, caveats, rival explanations, or dependency overlap.

## 4. Why Dependency And Cluster Caps Exist

Dependency and cluster caps exist because related rows can share sources, mechanisms, assumptions, or explanatory force. Without caps, a set of overlapping rows could stack as if each were independent. Caps are therefore anti-inflation controls. They are not penalties against a conclusion; they are safeguards for honest accumulation.

## 5. Why Transfer Weights Exist

The Signal is staged. Earlier stages can condition later stages, but they must not be copied forward as fresh proof. Transfer weights let upstream evidence matter while forcing later claims to carry their own local burden. This is conditional inference, not special pleading.

## 6. Why Confidence Ceilings Are Guardrails

An arbitrary confidence ceiling is not evidence math in the same sense as a Bayes factor or dependency cap. It is a guardrail or sensitivity tool. It can be useful for asking, "What happens if we force a conservative cap here?" But it must be labeled as a stress-test unless there is a separate argument that the ceiling itself is the fair calculation.

## 7. Why Lower Numbers Are Not Automatically Fairer

Lower numbers can be more cautious, but caution is not the same as fairness. A low result can be unfair if it ignores staged conditioning, discounts real evidence twice, treats skepticism as neutral, or lets a rival worldview borrow what it cannot ground. Fairness requires named reasons: row weakness, source limitation, prior challenge, dependency overlap, live defeater, or rival pressure.

## 8. Why Higher Numbers Are Not Automatically Inflated

Higher numbers can be inflated, but they can also result from real cumulative structure. A stronger output is legitimate only if the contributing rows, priors, dependency caps, transfer weights, and assumptions are named and inspectable. The Full Signal Diagnostic is therefore retained as an upper-bound stress view, not as proof or generic unconditional certainty.

## 9. What Would Change The Result

The result would change if evidence rows were corrected, Bayes factors were revised, priors were changed, source-role analysis weakened or strengthened key rows, dependency clusters were capped differently, transfer weights were changed, defeaters gained more force, rival-positive rows were added, or the staged assumptions failed under audit. A responsible challenge names the exact rows, clusters, priors, dependency assumptions, and recalculation mode.

## 10. Known Weaknesses And Live Objections

Known live pressure includes Stage 2 and Stage 3 bridge strength, source-role hardening across older rows, rival-positive coverage for non-Christian worldviews, resurrection alternatives, hiddenness, evil, pluralism, canon/textual questions, and the difference between direct evidence and carried-prior staged reasoning. These are not hidden. They are part of the audit burden.

## Current Result-Lens Rule

Report the lenses separately:

- Strict Audit Calculation: the main hostile/fair audit lens.
- Audit Guardrail: 75% Ceiling Stress-Test: the extra-conservative capped stress-test.
- Guided Staged Path: the dependency-capped, transfer-weighted staged calculation without an extra final confidence ceiling.
- Guided 90% Carry-Cap Sensitivity: the older guided cap retained only as sensitivity.
- Full Signal Diagnostic: an upper-bound stress view under stated assumptions.

Do not compress the result toward neutrality unless you identify exact rows, clusters, priors, dependency assumptions, and recalculation mode.
